Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies

Abstract

This study performs unbiasedness and efficiency tests of three-month and twelve-month ahead interest rate forecasts of one short-term and one long-term security of 10 developed and 20 emerging economies by exploiting a new survey data source. The results of the country-specific unbiasedness tests are mixed. However, the panel-based unbiasedness test results show that forecasts are biased. The efficiency test results indicate that forecasters do not incorporate all available information into their forecasts. We also find that emerging markets' interest rates are more predictable than the developed markets' interest rates at the shorter horizon due mainly to high inflation in the emerging markets. We also check for the robustness of our findings by dividing the sample period into two sub-periods, before and after the global financial crisis of 2007. We did not find any significant difference in the sub-period results compared to the full period. By considering a new group of countries (emerging economies), a new data source, and a new estimation approach, our study contributes to the financial market efficiency literature, especially on emerging markets. Investors and monetary policy makers should use these data cautiously as forecasts are not efficient. The study also has implications for monetary policy transparency and independence.