A global multiregional life cycle sustainability assessment of national energy production scenarios until 2050

Abstract

The global increasing energy demand have made governments more environmental conscious, yet there are also impacts on society and the environment. The triple-bottom-line sustainability assessment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods are used for projecting the impacts on environment, economy and society until 2050 by electricity production sectors in Turkey from 12 different energy sources, under Business As Usual (BAU) and Renewable Energy Development (RED) scenarios. In this regard, three sustainability indicators greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wages and taxes are quantified based on electricity production from renewable and non-renewable resources using a high country and sector resolution EXIOBASE, which is a global multiregional input-output (MRIO) database. The results showed that in comparison of BAU with RED scenario, GHG emissions associated would be 84% less in RED, wages will be 23% less and taxes would decrease by 22.4% under RED plan by 2050. In addition, energy sources responsible for the highest GHG emissions per kilowatt-hour of electricity produced are found as biomass, coal, waste and oil. However, coal and biomass contributes to high wages and tax on products purchased. This research provides important insights for policy makers to make more informed decisions considering environmental, economic and societal performance of electricity production policies.