Forecasting the impact of environmental stresses on the frequent waves of COVID19

Abstract

A novel approach to link the environmental stresses with the COVID-19 cases is adopted during this research. The time-dependent data are extracted from the online repositories that are freely available for knowledge and research. Since the time series data analysis is desired for the COVID-19 time-dependent frequent waves, here in this manuscript, we have developed a time series model with the aid of “nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX)” approach. The distribution of infectious agent-containing droplets from an infected person to an uninfected person is a common form of respiratory disease transmission. SARS-CoV-2 has mainly spread via short-range respiratory droplet transmission. Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 seems to have occurred over long distances or times in unusual conditions; SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in PM10 collected in Italy. This research shows that SARS-CoV-2 particles adsorbed to outdoor PM remained viable for a long time, given the epidemiology of COVID-19, outdoor air pollution is unlikely to be a significant route of transmission. In this research, ANN time series is used to analyze the data resulting from the COVID-19 first and second waves and the forecasted results show that air pollution affects people in different areas of Italy and make more people sick with covid-19. The model is developed based on the disease transmission data of Italy.