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المؤلفMrabet, Zouhair
المؤلفAlsamara, Mouyad
المؤلفMimouni, Karim
المؤلفShikh Ebid, Ahmad
تاريخ الإتاحة2023-07-24T08:48:34Z
تاريخ النشر2023-01-09
اسم المنشورApplied Economics
المعرّفhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2165615
الاقتباسMrabet, Z., Alsamara, M., Mimouni, K., & Shikh Ebid, A. (2023). Can government expenditure help reconstruct the Syrian economy in the post-conflict period? evidence from the SVAR and nonlinear ARDL models. Applied Economics, 1-15.
الرقم المعياري الدولي للكتاب0003-6846
معرّف المصادر الموحدhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85146222679&origin=inward
معرّف المصادر الموحدhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/46180
الملخصThis paper explores the viability of the fiscal policy in the reconstruction of the Syrian economy. We use the Structural VAR estimation technique to assess the response of real GDP to shocks in government expenditures and exchange rates in the parallel market. We also control for other variables including money supply and oil prices. We find that government spending is an effective tool for economic recovery in particular under a quasi-fixed exchange rate regime. We also employ the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model to detect the existence of asymmetrical effects of government spending on real GDP. The NARDL results show that negative changes in government expenditure have more impact on economic growth compared to positive changes. Additionally, the NARDL model reveals that the post-conflict period was characterized by large government spending’ inefficiencies. Finally, we study three alternative government spending’ rebuilding scenarios. We document that reaching the pre-conflict GDP level is possible under two of the scenarios we investigate. Hence, our results provide strong policy implications according to which fiscal policy can, under specific exchange rate regimes, reverse the adverse effects of civil wars.
اللغةen
الناشرTaylor & Francis
الموضوعConflict
economic growth
fiscal policy
nonlinear ARDL
structural VAR
العنوانCan government expenditure help reconstruct the Syrian economy in the post-conflict period? evidence from the SVAR and nonlinear ARDL models
النوعArticle
الصفحات1-15
ESSN1466-4283
dc.accessType Open Access


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