DIFFERENTIATING FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGIES IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA: THE DECISION-MAKING CALCULUS TOWARDS IRAN

Abstract

This dissertation comparatively analyses the foreign policy strategies of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates by focusing on the decision-making calculus towards Iran over a five-decade period spanning from 1979 to 2023. The objective is to identify the unique determinants in the foreign policy decision-making calculus of each state, shedding light on the reasons behind the absence of a cohesive policy towards Iran. By examining a myriad of internal, regional, and international factors, this dissertation presents a new holistic framework to analyze the complex web of relationships within the Persian Gulf region. Two sets of independent variables are employed to differentiate the decision-making calculus of the six Arab states towards Iran -the impact of critical factors and the ramifications of critical events- as well as the interaction between them. The critical factors include History, Territorial Links, Shi'a Demography, Economic Relations, Military Engagements, Regional Role, External Influence, and Public Opinion. Concurrently, the dissertation delves into critical events that have significantly shaped the geopolitical landscape of the region since 1979, subsequently influencing each country's relations with Iran. Noteworthy events include the Iran-Iraq War (1980), Leadership Transitions in Iran (1989), the US Invasion of Iraq (2003), the Arab Uprisings (2011), the Iran Nuclear Agreement (2015), the Saudi-Iran Spat (2016), Trump's Maximum Pressure Campaign (2019), as well as the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement (2023). Utilizing qualitative and quantitative research methods, this dissertation uses these factors and events to present a new Critical Framework for analysis in addition to visually depicting the similarities and differences in the foreign policy strategies of the six states towards Iran.