Estimated global and regional incidence and prevalence of herpes simplex virus infections and genital ulcer disease in 2020: mathematical modelling analyses
| Author | Harfouche, Manale |
| Author | AlMukdad, Sawsan |
| Author | Alareeki, Asalah |
| Author | Osman, Aisha M M |
| Author | Gottlieb, Sami |
| Author | Rowley, Jane |
| Author | Abu-Raddad, Laith J |
| Author | Looker, Katharine J |
| Available date | 2025-04-28T09:44:48Z |
| Publication Date | 2024 |
| Publication Name | Sexually Transmitted Infections |
| Resource | Scopus |
| Identifier | http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/sextrans-2024-056307 |
| ISSN | 13684973 |
| Abstract | Objectives Genital herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 1 and 2 infections are lifelong and can cause symptomatic genital ulcer disease (GUD). HSV-2 almost always causes sexually transmitted genital infection, while HSV-1 mainly causes oral infection but can be sexually transmitted to cause genital infection. This study estimated genital infection with both HSV types and associated GUD globally in 2020, breaking down the data by WHO region and sex for females and males. Methods A calibrated mathematical model was employed to generate estimates for the incidence and prevalence of HSV-2 infection, genital HSV-1 infection, and GUD caused by both HSV types. Estimates for non-genital infections caused by HSV-1 were also generated. Model input was derived from a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analyses of HSV prevalence data for all WHO regions. Results Globally in 2020 there were 25.6 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 23.1-29.4 million) people aged 15-49 years with new HSV-2 infections, and 519.5 million (95% UI 464.3-611.3 million), or 13.3% (95% UI 11.9-15.6%), with existing (prevalent) HSV-2 infections. In addition, there were 16.8 million (95% UI 10.6-22.4 million) people aged 15-49 years with new genital HSV-1 infections and 376.2 million (95% UI 235.6-483.5 million), or 10.2% (95% UI 6.4-13.1%), with prevalent genital HSV-1 infections. The estimated number of people aged 15-49 years with at least one episode of HSV-attributable GUD in 2020 was 187.9 million (95% UI 116.0-291.8 million) for HSV-2, and 16.7 million (95% UI 9.3-25.2 million) for HSV-1, totalling 204.6 million (95% UI 132.3-306.5 million). Conclusion Genital HSV infections have a high incidence and prevalence worldwide, contributing to a significant GUD disease burden. New prevention and treatment measures, such as prophylactic and therapeutic HSV vaccines, are needed critically to control HSV infections and reduce the associated disease burden. |
| Sponsor | The authors gratefully acknowledge Professor Emeritus Rhoda Ashley Morrow from the University of Washington, for her support in assessing the quality of study diagnostic methods, and Dr Maeve Brito De Mell from the World Health Organization for her invaluable insights during the planning and implementation of this project. The authors are also grateful to Ms Adona Canlas for administrative support. This publication was supported by the WHO (Global HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes) through a grant from USAID. WHO commissioned the study, advised as required, helped with redrafts, and approved manuscript submission. MH, SM, AA, AMMO, and LJA are grateful for research support provided by the Biomedical Research Program and by the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar. KJL thanks the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Behavioural Science and Evaluation at the University of Bristol, in partnership with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), for research support. The original systematic reviews for HSV-1 and HSV-2 were funded in part by grant numbers ARG01-0524-230321 from the Qatar Research, Development, and Innovation Council and NPRP9-040-3-008 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of the Qatar Foundation). The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the views, decisions or policies of the institutions with which they are affiliated, including the NHS, the NIHR, the Department for Health and Social Care, the UKHSA, and the WHO. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the Qatar Research Development and Innovation Council. |
| Language | en |
| Publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| Subject | Epidemiology GENITAL HERPES HERPES SIMPLEX |
| Type | Article |
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