Climate change and sustainable development new evidence from the Gulf cooperation Council economies

Abstract

This study explores the effects of climate change, trade, population, foreign direct investment, GDP, technological innovation, and natural resource rents on sustainable development in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies from 2001 to 2020. The primary objective is to understand how these factors contribute to or hinder sustainable development in the region. Using the descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, unit root tests, cointegration tests, and, Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, Quantile on Quantile, Granger causality tests, we assess the short- and long-term relationships between these variables. The findings indicate that technological innovation and climate change significantly influence sustainable development, especially at the lower and mean quantiles, suggesting that adapting to technological change and mitigating climate change are key to sustainability. Additionally, the study reveals complex, nonlinear relationships among these variables, with technological innovation, GDP, and population exerting long-term impacts, whereas natural resource rents and FDI negatively affect sustainability in the short term. The Granger causality results further show that variables such as temperature, natural resources, and FDI influence sustainable development, while GDP, population, and technological innovation exhibit bidirectional causal relationships. These results have important policy implications for enhancing sustainability in the GCC region by integrating climate adaptation strategies and fostering technological advancement.