Predicting Contemporary Volume with Historic Volume at Differential Price Level: Prospect Theory vs. Regret Aversion

Abstract

This paper studies the behaviour of investors in the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) through emphasising two behavioural theories: prospect theory and regret aversion theory. Prospect theory predicts disposition to sell winner stocks and ride loser stocks. Regret aversion, on the other hand, explains why investors may have difficulty in realising gains as well as losses. A new methodology is used to examine the relationship between volume at a given point in time and volume that took place in the past at different stock price level. The results support the prospect theory that investors show an inclination to sell shares for which price increased and keep shares for which price decreased.