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AuthorFerrarini, Alessandro
AuthorAlatalo, Juha M.
AuthorGervasoni, David
AuthorFoggi, Bruno
Available date2020-12-03T11:24:55Z
Publication Date2017
Publication NameEcological Complexity
ResourceScopus
URIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2016.11.003
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/17176
AbstractNew models are required to predict the impacts of future climate change on biodiversity. A move must be made away from individual models of single species toward approaches with synergistically interacting species. The focus should be on indirect effects due to biotic interactions. Here we propose a new parsimonious approach to simulate direct and indirect effects of global warming on plant communities. The methodology consists of five steps: a) field survey of species abundances, b) quantitative assessment of species co-occurrences, c) assignment of a theorised effect of increased temperature on each species, d) creation of a community model to project community dynamics, and e) exploration of the potential range of temperature change effects on plant communities. We explored the possible climate-driven dynamics in an alpine vegetation community and gained insights into the role of biotic interactions as determinants of plant species response to climate change at local scale. The study area was the uppermost portion of Alpe delle Tre Potenze (Northern Apennines, Italy) from 1500 m up to the summit at 1940 m. Our work shows that: 1) unexpected climate-driven dynamics can emerge, 2) interactive communities with indirect effects among species can overcome direct effects induced by global warming; 3) if just one or few species react to global warming the new community configuration could be unexpected and counter-intuitive; 4) timing of species reactions to global warming is an important driver of community dynamics; 5) using simulation models with a limited amount of data in input, it is possible to explore the full range of potential changes in plant communities induced by climate warming.
SponsorFunding for field sampling was provided by the University of Florence (ex 60%) and the Province of Pistoia . Carl Trygger Foundation supported JMA. We thank Prof. Christian Temperli (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL) for his useful comments prior to submission. We also thank three anonymous reviewers whose remarks improved the manuscript.
Languageen
PublisherElsevier B.V.
SubjectBiotic interactions
Climate change
Community model
Emergent configurations
Indirect effects
Time-dependent interactions
TitleExploring the compass of potential changes induced by climate warming in plant communities
TypeArticle
Volume Number29
dc.accessType Abstract Only


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