The Rise of Shale oil and Gas and the Renewables and the Prospects for the Future of GCC Energy Sector

Abstract

The rise of shale oil and gas, particularly in the United States, and its emergence as the largest producer of oil and an exporter of natural gas and a modest amounts of oil, has transformed the US as the net importer of oil and gas to an exporter in a short span of time. As such, US is on the verge of becoming a formidable future competition for the GCC energy producers. In fact, by 2019, the promise of US shale oil and gas proved to be so alluring that as of late many major US energy companies are cutting back on their overseas investment in favor of investments in US shale oil and gas sector. In addition to the US competition, some of the major global importers of GCC oil and gas, namely China and Japan are investing in exploring their own domestic alternative sources of energy. The Energy Information Administration in the United States estimates that China has four times larger reserves of shale gas than the United States. Currently, Shale gas production in China is responsible for about 15% of domestic consumption, but as the technological capabilities to access these resources improves and the cost of production decreases, Chinas reliance on its own gas reserves for domestic consumption is bound to expand. Japan, the largest global importer of Liquified Natural Gas in the world, has invested substantially in the last decade in order to find safe and economically viable ways to explore the massive amount of Methane Hydrates (Flammable Ice) that is found off its coast in order to reduce its heavy reliance on imported gas. Hence, as the magnitude of global environmental crisis unfolds, the call for divestment from fossil fuels and more substantial investment in wind and solar energy has gathered momentum globally; and by 2016, investment in these new sources of energy was outstripping the amount of money invested in fossil fuels. These impactful new developments already have created their own ripple effects economically and politically, compelling several GCC countries to put the diversification of their economies on top of their respective agendas as manifested by Saudi Vision 2030 and a similar initiative in Kuwait. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar had embarked on the path of diversification of their economies earlier. As Chinas ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) gathers momentum, attempts are underway by several GCC countries to forge synergy between their own initiatives and Chinas BRI. It remains to be seen if these polices would prove to be successful or not. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of these themes and in light of current dynamics offers some insights into the future prospects for the energy sector in GCC countries