The Second Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Change or Continuity?

Abstract

The Supreme Leader has a significant role in determining political life in Iran. The analysis of this role is an integral part of studying Iranian domestic politics and foreign policy. The succession issue has been of particular importance and subject to numerous academic endeavours after speculations of current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s failing health. The focus of these studies centres on the personalities of the potential candidates for this eminent position. This paper departs from mainstream research and analyzes the structural factors that guide the process of choosing the Supreme Leader in Iran. The study of the historical context in the designation process of Iran’s two Supreme Leaders, Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei, provides a more comprehensive understanding of the position and role of the next Supreme Leader. The similarities between the selection of the previous Leaders, such as similar external pressures and domestic influences, highlight structural elements that will affect the forthcoming process. This paper identifies the structure of the political system and the national security apparatus as the major determinants in selecting the future Leader in Iran.