Analysis of the resilience of the Turkey tourism industry to exogenous shocks: new evidence from a NARDL model

Abstract

This paper analyses the resilience of the Turkey tourism industry to exogenous shocks over the period from January 1997 to December 2018. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model, our results show strong evidence for the existence of an asymmetric effect of terrorist attacks on tourism receipts and the number of tourist arrivals. Interestingly, the results reveal that terrorist attacks decreases have a higher impact on tourism demand compared to the impact of terrorist attacks increases. This finding confirms the resilience of the Turkey tourism sector to exogenous shocks. The result indicates the significant role of the Turkey government in supporting the tourism sector during periods of instability. These findings offer several valuable insights for policy-makers and researchers.