Scenario-Based Forecast for Post-Conflict’s Growth in Syria

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the main macroeconomic indicators, namely real GDP, consumer prices and parallel market exchange rate in the Syrian economy during the period 1990-2017. We provide a comprehensive analysis for the macroeconomic policies and performance in the pre-conflict and during the conflict periods. For this purpose, we employ two advanced estimation approaches, namely, nonlinear ARDL and Structural VAR. these techniques are very useful to estimate how real GDP has reacted to shocks stemming from three major macroeconomic variables namely, money supply, consumer prices, and parallel exchange rate market. The empirical results indicate that the responses of real GDP to negative shocks in money supply are greater than its responses to positive shocks in money supply during the conflict period. Moreover, we distinguish four different scenario for money supply as possible views of rebuilding scenarios. The achievement of this scenario depends on the political settlement agreement and the size of capital inflow into the economy.