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AuthorMrabet, Zouhair
AuthorAlsamara, Mouyad
AuthorMimouni, Karim
AuthorShikh Ebid, Ahmad
Available date2023-07-24T08:48:34Z
Publication Date2023-01-09
Publication NameApplied Economics
Identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2165615
CitationMrabet, Z., Alsamara, M., Mimouni, K., & Shikh Ebid, A. (2023). Can government expenditure help reconstruct the Syrian economy in the post-conflict period? evidence from the SVAR and nonlinear ARDL models. Applied Economics, 1-15.
ISSN0003-6846
URIhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85146222679&origin=inward
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/46180
AbstractThis paper explores the viability of the fiscal policy in the reconstruction of the Syrian economy. We use the Structural VAR estimation technique to assess the response of real GDP to shocks in government expenditures and exchange rates in the parallel market. We also control for other variables including money supply and oil prices. We find that government spending is an effective tool for economic recovery in particular under a quasi-fixed exchange rate regime. We also employ the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model to detect the existence of asymmetrical effects of government spending on real GDP. The NARDL results show that negative changes in government expenditure have more impact on economic growth compared to positive changes. Additionally, the NARDL model reveals that the post-conflict period was characterized by large government spending’ inefficiencies. Finally, we study three alternative government spending’ rebuilding scenarios. We document that reaching the pre-conflict GDP level is possible under two of the scenarios we investigate. Hence, our results provide strong policy implications according to which fiscal policy can, under specific exchange rate regimes, reverse the adverse effects of civil wars.
Languageen
PublisherTaylor & Francis
SubjectConflict
economic growth
fiscal policy
nonlinear ARDL
structural VAR
TitleCan government expenditure help reconstruct the Syrian economy in the post-conflict period? evidence from the SVAR and nonlinear ARDL models
TypeArticle
Pagination1-15
ESSN1466-4283
dc.accessType Open Access


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