Numerical Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on the Coast of Oman

Abstract

It is well known that there is an apparent increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones (IPCC, 2023). This will lead to a significant effect not just on the infrastructure and the economic activities but also on the coastal environments. On the other hand, an increase in the population along the coastal areas in such a country as the Sultanate of Oman will also increase the risk and the hazard. It has been noticed extremely heavy rainfall during the most recent tropical cyclone, Shaheen (October 3 2021). It is also recorded along the Omani coast's extremely high waves during this storm event. Some other tropical cyclones in the past also indicated an essential effect on the Omani coast (Shawky et al., 2021). In this regard, the development of a fundamental understanding of the hydrodynamic behaviour along the coastal system during these events has been necessary. Moreover, the tropical cyclone track and wind speeds have been recorded only for a few temporal spans. This leads to better reliable estimations of such a kind of event. The state-of-the-art process-based numerical model will be utilized to hind cast the hydrodynamic developments from several tropical cyclone events along the Omani coast. A well-calibrated and validated flow model has been set up using Deft3D, a world leader's software (Lesser et al., 2004). Furthermore, the impact of wind-induced waves has been investigated using the SWAN wave model (Booij et al., 1999; Ris et al., 1999). In this paper, four well-known tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean will be simulated. The four tropical cyclones were selected due to their historical significance and the amount of destruction they caused on the Omani coast. The investigation results showed significant tropical cyclones' effects on the Omani coasts due to their intensity and the cyclones' pattern. Overall, the numerical models that are showing good descriptions of climate change can be valuable tools for comprehending and predicting the influences of climate change on the Omani coast and can be employed to support in the decision-making.