Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study

Abstract

Background: Direct-acting antivirals opened an opportunity for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the region most affected by HCV infection. Impact of HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) was investigated in 19 MENA countries. Methods: An age-structured mathematical model was used to assess program impact using epidemiologic and programming measures. The model was fitted to a database of systematically gathered HCV antibody prevalence data. Two main scenarios were investigated for the treatment roll-out to achieve (i) 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030, and (ii) incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years by 2030. Results: In the target-80%-incidence-reduction scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 2,610 in Lebanon to 180,416 in Sudan with a median of 53,079, and treatment coverage ranged between 40.2 and 78.4% with a median of 60.4%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection ranged between 0.0 and 0.3% with a median of 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, ranged between 0.9 and 16.3 with a median of 3.2. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 47.8 and 81.9% with a median of 68.5%, and number of averted infections ranged between 401 and 68,499 with a median of 8,703. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.7 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 6.5. In the target incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 3,470 in Lebanon to 211,912 in Sudan with a median of 54,479, and treatment coverage ranged between 55.5 and 95.9% with a median of 87.5%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection was less than 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, reached less than 1. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 61.0 and 97.5% with a median of 90.7%, and number of averted infections ranged between 559 and 104,315 with a median of 12,158. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.3 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 5.5. Conclusion: HCV-TasP is an effective and indispensable prevention intervention to control MENA's HCV epidemic and to achieve elimination by 2030.