US, IRAN, AND SAUDI ARABIA: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF STIMULUS RESPONSE THEORY: 2009 - 2020

Abstract

The thesis presents an empirical analysis of the impact of the US foreign policy toward Iran on Iran's foreign policy toward Saudi Arabia, namely during the Obama and Trump presidencies, by adopting the action-reaction (S-R bargaining) model of bargaining theory of realism. It argued that US foreign policy toward Iran largely determined Iran's foreign policy toward Saudi Arabia between 2009 and 2020. The thesis aimed to provide empirical evidence in exploring the impact of the US strategies toward Iran on Iran's behavior toward Saudi Arabia. The thesis explores the US foreign policy toward Iran as well as Iran's foreign policy toward Saudi Arabia using the presidential remarks, namely US presidential remarks toward Iran and Iranian presidential remarks toward Saudi Arabia between 2009 and 2020, to reveal the course of US behavior toward Iran as well as Iran approach toward Saudi Arabia, that represented by a positive approach, namely diplomacy, and incentives, as well as a negative approach that includes threats, and sanctions and isolation. The thesis concluded that Iran's action toward Saudi Arabia, to a large extent, appeared to be a reaction to the US strategies toward Iran. The thesis revealed a set of positive and negative correlations between certain US strategies toward Iran and Iran's behavior toward Saudi Arabia, which supports the hypothesis. A stimulus-response action occurred in a series of US strategies toward Iran, including the interim agreement (2013), the nuclear deal (2015), and the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal (2018), which reflected a fluctuating course of behavior in Iran's approach toward Saudi Arabia, represented by positive and negative course of behavior, by which shifting from integration and cooperation (2009 - 2016) into aggressive behavior (2017 - 2020).