Growing but Nonmutual: Unequal Trade Dependencies and the Future of the GCC’s Economic Integration

Abstract

Despite political tensions2 and commercial competition3, trade between the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remains surprisingly robust. The steadily rising exchange of goods within the GCC is noteworthy, if only because these states vary greatly in size but not in economic composition. The dependencies formed by this trade should be the subject of study, particularly when the union’s smallest economies are building high degrees of reliance on larger neighbors who have relatively less to gain from trading with them. The GCC’s biggest market, Saudi Arabia, has the least to gain or lose from intra-bloc trade, and therefore little incentive to encourage economic cooperation with its neighbors. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a 40-year-old trade bloc comprising the six relatively homogenous economies of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Despite their similar industrial compositions, trade between these states is not insignificant. The union’s free trade and customs agreements have facilitated the flow of goods across borders, although the differences in scale and demographic needs within the GCC mean that trading with neighbors is more important to some GCC states than others. Yet, the analysis of 2010-21 trade data shows that even the embargo imposed on Qatar by three fellow members (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) and the ensuring ‘Gulf Rift’ did not prevent intra-bloc trade from increasing over time.