Future Mangrove Carbon Storage Under Climate Change and Deforestation
![Thumbnail](/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10576/53387/fmars-09-781876.pdf.jpg?sequence=3&isAllowed=y)
View/ Open
Date
2022Author
Chatting, MarkAl-Maslamani, Ibrahim
Walton, Mark
Skov, Martin W.
Kennedy, Hilary
Husrevoglu, Y. Sinan
Le Vay, Lewis
...show more authors ...show less authors
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Mangroves are important sinks of organic carbon (C) and there is significant interest in their use for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. Adverse impacts on organic carbon storage potential from future climate change and deforestation would devalue such ambitions, thus global projections of future change remains a priority research area. We modeled the effects of climate change on future C stocks and soil sequestration rates (CSR) under two climate scenarios (“business as usual”: SSP245 and high-emissions: SSP585). Model results were contrasted with CO2 equivalents (CO2e) emissions from past, present and future rates of deforestation on a country specific scale. For C stocks, we found climate change will increase global stocks by ∼7% under both climate scenarios and that this gain will exceed losses from deforestation by the end of the twenty-first century, largely due to shifts in rainfall. Major mangrove-holding countries Indonesia, Malaysia, Cuba, and Nigeria will increase national C stocks by > 10%. Under the high-end scenario, while a net global increase is still expected, elevated temperatures and wider temperature ranges are likely increase the risk of countries’ C stocks diminishing. For CSR, there will likely be a global reduction under both climate change scenarios: 12 of the top 20 mangrove-rich countries will see a drop in CSR. Modeling of published country level mangrove deforestation rates showed emissions have decreased from 141.4 to 6.4% of annual CSR since the 1980’s. Projecting current mangrove deforestation rates into the future resulted in a total of 678.50 ± 151.32 Tg CO2e emitted from 2012 to 2095. Reducing mangrove deforestation rates further would elevate the carbon benefit from climate change by 55–61%, to make the proposition of offsetting emissions through mangrove protection and restoration more attractive. These results demonstrate the positive benefits of mangrove conservation on national carbon budgets, and we identify the nations where incorporating mangrove conservation into their Nationally Defined Contributions offers a particularly rewarding route toward meeting their Glasgow Agreement commitments.
Collections
- Marine Science Cluster [214 items ]
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Are mangroves in arid environments isolated systems? Life-history and evidence of dietary contribution from inwelling in a mangrove-resident shrimp species
I., Al-Maslamani; Walton, M.E.M.; Kennedy, H.A.; Al-Mohannadi, M.; Le Vay, L. ( Elsevier , 2013 , Article)The Arabian Gulf represents one of the more northerly extremes of mangrove distribution in the Indo-Pacific, and is populated only by Avicennia marina, due to its tolerance of high salinity and wide temperature extremes. ... -
Diversity of benthic macrofauna and physical parameters of sediments in natural mangroves and in afforested mangroves three decades after compensatory planting
Al‑Khayat, Jassim A.; Abdulla, Maryam A.; Alatalo, Juha M. ( Springer , 2018 , Article)Mangroves in the Arabian Gulf are under pressure from land use change, leading to compensatory planting at sites without natural mangroves. In this study, we examine the potential long-term success of this form of ... -
Vulnerability of mangroves to sea level rise in Qatar: Assessment and identification of vulnerable mangroves areas
Shehadi, Mohammad Ahmad (2015 , Master Thesis)Qatar is one of few countries in Arabian Gulf where mangrove ecosystem exist. They are essential number of ecosystem function; however, this valuable ecosystem is threatened by both anthropogenic and global climatic ...