Forecasting Of The Storm Surge In Winter At Alexandria (Egypt)

Abstract

Since storms frequently occur in the winter season, at Alexandria, SE of the Mediterranean Sea. storm surges often affect this area. In this paper, we attempt to forecast the storm surge heights in the commercial Western Harbor of Alexandria, during both strong and moderate storms, using statistical multiple regression analysis. On applying different statistical models and after validation, the present results showed that a strong surge (Y) can be forecast using a three hour prognosis model expressed by: (Y=0.85* HT12 +0.84* n3 +2.27* p3), where HT12 is the mean surge height over 12 hours proceeding the forecast time. n3 and p3 are the wind velocity component normal to the shore in (knots) and the atmospheric pressure (mb) respectively three hours before the forecast time. On the other hand, three equations were found to be convenient to forecast the moderate surge at Alexandria. The occurrence of strong or moderate surges cases could be forecast using the meteorological synoptic conditions over the Eastern Mediterranean.