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المؤلفFerrarini, Alessandro
المؤلفDai, Junhu
المؤلفBai, Yang
المؤلفAlatalo, Juha M.
تاريخ الإتاحة2019-05-13T09:02:44Z
تاريخ النشر2019-03-27
اسم المنشورScience of The Total Environment
المعرّفhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.353
الرقم المعياري الدولي للكتاب0048-9697
الرقم المعياري الدولي للكتاب1879-1026
معرّف المصادر الموحدhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/11537
الملخصClimate change is increasingly affecting plant species distributions, in ways that need to be predicted. Here, in a novel prediction approach, we developed the relevant climate niche (RCN) of plants, based on thorough selection of climate variables and implementation of a non-parametric Bayesian network for climate simulations. The RCN was conditionalized to project the fate of Silene acaulis in North America under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) short-term (2011–2040) climate scenarios. We identified a three-variable climate hypervolume for S. acaulis. Within 20 years >50% of current locations of the species will be outside the defined climate hypervolume. It could compensate for climate change in 2011–2040 through a poleward shift of 0.97 °C or an upshift of 138 m in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 1.29 °C or 184 m in the RCP8.5 scenario. These results demonstrate the benefits of redefining the climate niche of plant species in the form of a user-defined, data-validated, hierarchical network comprising only variables that are consistent with species distribution. Advantages include realism and interpretability in niche modeling, and new opportunities for predicting future species distributions under climate change.
راعي المشروعQatar Petroleum (QUEX-ESC-QP-RD-18/19) supported J.M.A. J.D. was supported by National Key R & D Program of China (2018YFA0606100).
اللغةen
الناشرElsevier
الموضوعClimate change compensation
Network-like climate niche
Non-parametric Bayesian network
North America
Reverse climate simulations
ilene acaulis L
العنوانRedefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change
النوعArticle
الصفحات1086-1093
رقم المجلد671
dc.accessType Abstract Only


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