The impact of government spending on non-oil-GDP in Saudi Arabia (multiplier analysis)

Abstract

This paper examines the multiplier effect of Government spending on the non-oil Saudi Arabia economic growth. We focus on non-oil GDP rather than total GDP because activity in the oil sector is mainly determined by circumstances in the international oil market. To reach this aim, we use several econometric tools as causality tests, co-integration test and structural VAR, to estimate the short- and long-run effects of government expenditures on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia. In this empirical investigation, we employ annual data covering the period from 1970 to 2015. Our empirical findings indicate an overall pro-growth effect of government expenditures, with significant positive fiscal multiplier in the health and agriculture sectors. By empirically assessing fiscal multipliers across diverse non-oil sectors, we perceived that variations in government expenditures are linked to same directional deviations in the growth of non-oil GDP during peak economic horizons. Especially, we find that if the economy is at a peak, we obtain suitable fiscal multipliers.