External Validation and Recalibration of the CURB-65 and PSI for Predicting 30-Day Mortality and Critical Care Intervention in Multiethnic Patients with COVID-19
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عرض / فتح
اصدار الناشر (تحقق من خيارات الوصول)
تحقق من خيارات الوصول
التاريخ
2021-08المؤلف
Elmoheen, AmrAbdelhafez, Ibrahim
Salem, Waleed
Bahgat, Mohamed
Elkandow, Ali
Tarig, Amina
Arshad, Nauman
Mohamed, Khoulod
Al-Hitmi, Maryam
Saad, Mona
Emam, Fatima
Taha, Samah
Bashir, Khalid
Azad, Aftab
...show more authors ...show less authors
البيانات الوصفية
عرض كامل للتسجيلةالملخص
Objectives: To validate and recalibrate the CURB-65 and pneumonia severity index (PSI) in predicting 30-day mortality and critical care intervention (CCI) in a multiethnic population with COVID-19, along with evaluating both models in predicting CCI.
Methods: Retrospective data was collected for 1181 patients admitted to the largest hospital in Qatar with COVID-19 pneumonia. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and other metrics were bootstrapped to examine the performance of the models. Variables constituting the CURB-65 and PSI scores underwent further analysis using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) along with logistic regression to develop a model predicting CCI. Complex machine learning models were built for comparative analysis.
Results: The PSI performed better than CURB-65 in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83, 0.78 respectively), while CURB-65 outperformed PSI in predicting CCI (AUC 0.78, 0.70 respectively). The modified PSI/CURB-65 model (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, hematocrit, age, sodium, and glucose) predicting CCI had excellent accuracy (AUC 0.823) and good calibration.
Conclusions: Our study recalibrated, externally validated the PSI and CURB-65 for predicting 30-day mortality and CCI, and developed a model for predicting CCI. Our tool can potentially guide clinicians in Qatar to stratify patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
المجموعات
- أبحاث فيروس كورونا المستجد (كوفيد-19) [799 items ]
- أبحاث الطب [1382 items ]