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AuthorElmoheen, Amr
AuthorAbdelhafez, Ibrahim
AuthorSalem, Waleed
AuthorBahgat, Mohamed
AuthorElkandow, Ali
AuthorTarig, Amina
AuthorArshad, Nauman
AuthorMohamed, Khoulod
AuthorAl-Hitmi, Maryam
AuthorSaad, Mona
AuthorEmam, Fatima
AuthorTaha, Samah
AuthorBashir, Khalid
AuthorAzad, Aftab
Available date2021-10-26T10:20:03Z
Publication Date2021-08
Publication NameInternational journal of infectious diseases
Identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.08.027
CitationElmoheen, A., Abdelhafez, I., Salem, W., Bahgat, M., Elkandow, A., & Tarig, A. et al. (2021). External Validation and Recalibration of the CURB-65 and PSI for Predicting 30-Day Mortality and Critical Care Intervention in Multiethnic Patients with COVID-19. Retrieved 26 October 2021
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/24702
AbstractObjectives: To validate and recalibrate the CURB-65 and pneumonia severity index (PSI) in predicting 30-day mortality and critical care intervention (CCI) in a multiethnic population with COVID-19, along with evaluating both models in predicting CCI. Methods: Retrospective data was collected for 1181 patients admitted to the largest hospital in Qatar with COVID-19 pneumonia. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and other metrics were bootstrapped to examine the performance of the models. Variables constituting the CURB-65 and PSI scores underwent further analysis using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) along with logistic regression to develop a model predicting CCI. Complex machine learning models were built for comparative analysis. Results: The PSI performed better than CURB-65 in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83, 0.78 respectively), while CURB-65 outperformed PSI in predicting CCI (AUC 0.78, 0.70 respectively). The modified PSI/CURB-65 model (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, hematocrit, age, sodium, and glucose) predicting CCI had excellent accuracy (AUC 0.823) and good calibration. Conclusions: Our study recalibrated, externally validated the PSI and CURB-65 for predicting 30-day mortality and CCI, and developed a model for predicting CCI. Our tool can potentially guide clinicians in Qatar to stratify patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
Languageen
PublisherElsevier
SubjectCOVID-19
CURB-65
PSI
mortality
critical care intervention
TitleExternal Validation and Recalibration of the CURB-65 and PSI for Predicting 30-Day Mortality and Critical Care Intervention in Multiethnic Patients with COVID-19
TypeArticle
Volume Number111
dc.accessType Open Access


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