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AuthorChemaitelly, Hiam
AuthorNagelkerke, Nico
AuthorAyoub, Houssein H
AuthorCoyle, Peter
AuthorTang, Patrick
AuthorYassine, Hadi M
AuthorAl-Khatib, Hebah A
AuthorSmatti, Maria K
AuthorHasan, Mohammad R
AuthorAl-Kanaani, Zaina
AuthorAl-Kuwari, Einas
AuthorJeremijenko, Andrew
AuthorKaleeckal, Anvar Hassan
AuthorLatif, Ali Nizar
AuthorShaik, Riyazuddin Mohammad
AuthorAbdul-Rahim, Hanan F
AuthorNasrallah, Gheyath K
AuthorAl-Kuwari, Mohamed Ghaith
AuthorButt, Adeel A
AuthorAl-Romaihi, Hamad Eid
AuthorAl-Thani, Mohamed H
AuthorAl-Khal, Abdullatif
AuthorBertollini, Roberto
AuthorAbu-Raddad, Laith J
Available date2022-11-09T04:34:51Z
Publication Date2022-09-30
Publication NameJournal of Travel Medicine (JTM)
Identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taac109
CitationHiam Chemaitelly, PhD, Nico Nagelkerke, PhD, Houssein H Ayoub, PhD, Peter Coyle, MD, Patrick Tang, MD PhD, Hadi M Yassine, PhD, Hebah A Al-Khatib, PhD, Maria K Smatti, MSc, Mohammad R Hasan, PhD, Zaina Al-Kanaani, PhD, Einas Al-Kuwari, MD, Andrew Jeremijenko, MD, Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal, MSc, Ali Nizar Latif, MD, Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik, MSc, Hanan F Abdul-Rahim, PhD, Gheyath K Nasrallah, PhD, Mohamed Ghaith Al-Kuwari, MD, Adeel A Butt, MBBS MS, Hamad Eid Al-Romaihi, MD, Mohamed H Al-Thani, MD, Abdullatif Al-Khal, MD, Roberto Bertollini, MD MPH, Laith J Abu-Raddad, PhD, Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection, Journal of Travel Medicine, 2022;, taac109, https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taac109
ISSN1195-1982
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/35948
AbstractThe future of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hinges on virus evolution and duration of immune protection of natural infection against reinfection. We investigated duration of protection afforded by natural infection, the effect of viral immune evasion on duration of protection, and protection against severe reinfection, in Qatar, between February 28, 2020 and June 5, 2022. Three national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted to compare incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity among unvaccinated persons with a documented SARS-CoV-2 primary infection, to incidence among those infection-naïve and unvaccinated. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional-hazard regression models. Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against pre-Omicron reinfection was 85.5% (95% CI: 84.8-86.2%). Effectiveness peaked at 90.5% (95% CI: 88.4-92.3%) in the 7th month after the primary infection, but waned to ~ 70% by the 16th month. Extrapolating this waning trend using a Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of 50% in the 22nd month and < 10% by the 32nd month. Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against Omicron reinfection was 38.1% (95% CI: 36.3-39.8%) and declined with time since primary infection. A Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of < 10% by the 15th month. Effectiveness of primary infection against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 reinfection was 97.3% (95% CI: 94.9-98.6%), irrespective of the variant of primary infection or reinfection, and with no evidence for waning. Similar results were found in sub-group analyses for those ≥50 years of age. Protection of natural infection against reinfection wanes and may diminish within a few years. Viral immune evasion accelerates this waning. Protection against severe reinfection remains very strong, with no evidence for waning, irrespective of variant, for over 14 months after primary infection.
Languageen
PublisherOxford University Press
SubjectCOVID-19
Omicron
cohort study
epidemiology
immunity
reinfection
severe disease
TitleDuration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection.
TypeArticle
ESSN1708-8305
dc.accessType Full Text


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