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AuthorAlsamara, Mouyad
AuthorMrabet, Zouhair
AuthorShikh Ebid, Ahmad
Available date2023-07-11T06:06:36Z
Publication Date2020
URIhttps://erf.org.eg/publications/scenario-based-forecast-for-post-conflicts-growth-in-syria/
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/45337
AbstractThis paper investigates the relationship between the main macroeconomic indicators, namely real GDP, consumer prices and parallel market exchange rate in the Syrian economy during the period 1990-2017. We provide a comprehensive analysis for the macroeconomic policies and performance in the pre-conflict and during the conflict periods. For this purpose, we employ two advanced estimation approaches, namely, nonlinear ARDL and Structural VAR. these techniques are very useful to estimate how real GDP has reacted to shocks stemming from three major macroeconomic variables namely, money supply, consumer prices, and parallel exchange rate market. The empirical results indicate that the responses of real GDP to negative shocks in money supply are greater than its responses to positive shocks in money supply during the conflict period. Moreover, we distinguish four different scenario for money supply as possible views of rebuilding scenarios. The achievement of this scenario depends on the political settlement agreement and the size of capital inflow into the economy.
Languageen
PublisherEconomic Research Forum (ERF)
SubjectConflict
Economic Growth
SVAR
Nonlinear ARDL
TitleScenario-Based Forecast for Post-Conflict’s Growth in Syria
TypeWorking Paper
Issue Number1385
dc.accessType Abstract Only


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