Estimating protection afforded by prior infection in preventing reinfection: Applying the test-negative study design.
Author | Ayoub, Houssein H |
Author | Tomy, Milan |
Author | Chemaitelly, Hiam |
Author | Altarawneh, Heba N |
Author | Coyle, Peter |
Author | Tang, Patrick |
Author | Hasan, Mohammad R |
Author | Al Kanaani, Zaina |
Author | Al Kuwari, Einas |
Author | Butt, Adeel A |
Author | Jeremijenko, Andrew |
Author | Kaleeckal, Anvar Hassan |
Author | Latif, Ali Nizar |
Author | Shaik, Riyazuddin Mohammad |
Author | Nasrallah, Gheyath K |
Author | Benslimane, Fatiha M |
Author | Al Khatib, Hebah A |
Author | Yassine, Hadi M |
Author | Al Kuwari, Mohamed G |
Author | Al Romaihi, Hamad Eid |
Author | Abdul-Rahim, Hanan F |
Author | Al-Thani, Mohamed H |
Author | Al Khal, Abdullatif |
Author | Bertollini, Roberto |
Author | Abu-Raddad, Laith J |
Available date | 2024-03-05T03:38:21Z |
Publication Date | 2023-12-07 |
Publication Name | American Journal of Epidemiology |
Identifier | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwad239 |
Citation | Houssein H Ayoub, Milan Tomy, Hiam Chemaitelly, Heba N Altarawneh, Peter Coyle, Patrick Tang, Mohammad R Hasan, Zaina Al Kanaani, Einas Al Kuwari, Adeel A Butt, Andrew Jeremijenko, Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal, Ali Nizar Latif, Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik, Gheyath K Nasrallah, Fatiha M Benslimane, Hebah A Al Khatib, Hadi M Yassine, Mohamed G Al Kuwari, Hamad Eid Al Romaihi, Hanan F Abdul-Rahim, Mohamed H Al-Thani, Abdullatif Al Khal, Roberto Bertollini, Laith J Abu-Raddad, Estimating protection afforded by prior infection in preventing reinfection: Applying the test-negative study design, American Journal of Epidemiology, 2023;, kwad239, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwad239 |
ISSN | 0002-9262 |
Abstract | The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to use infection testing databases to rapidly estimate effectiveness of prior infection in preventing reinfection ($P{E}_S$) by novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. Mathematical modeling was used to demonstrate a theoretical foundation for applicability of the test-negative, case-control study design to derive $P{E}_S$. Apart from the very early phase of an epidemic, the difference between the test-negative estimate for $P{E}_S$ and true value of $P{E}_S$ was minimal and became negligible as the epidemic progressed. The test-negative design provided robust estimation of $P{E}_S$ and its waning. Assuming that only 25% of prior infections are documented, misclassification of prior infection status underestimated $P{E}_S$, but the underestimate was considerable only when >50% of the population was ever infected. Misclassification of latent infection, misclassification of current active infection, and scale-up of vaccination all resulted in negligible bias in estimated $P{E}_S$. The test-negative design was applied to national-level testing data in Qatar to estimate $P{E}_S$ for SARS-CoV-2. $P{E}_S$ against SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Beta variants was estimated at 97.0% (95% CI: 93.6-98.6) and 85.5% (95% CI: 82.4-88.1), respectively. These estimates were validated using a cohort study design. The test-negative design offers a feasible, robust method to estimate protection from prior infection in preventing reinfection. |
Sponsor | HHA acknowledges the support of Qatar University collaborative grant QUCG-CAS23/24-114 and Marubeni grant M-QJRC-2020-5. The authors are grateful for support from the Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, as well as for support provided by the Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, and Sidra Medicine. The authors are also grateful for the Qatar Genome Programmed and Qatar University Biomedical Research Center for institutional support for the reagents needed for the viral genome sequencing. Statements made herein are solely the responsibility of the authors. The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the article. The developed mathematical models were made possible thanks to modeling infrastructure developed through NPRP grant number 9-040-3-008 (Principal investigator: LJA) and NPRP grant number 12S-0216-190094 (Principal investigator: LJA) from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation; https://www.qnrf.org). The statements made herein are solely the responsibility of the authors. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. |
Language | en |
Publisher | Oxford University Press |
Subject | COVID-19 Reinfection SARS-CoV-2 effectiveness mathematical model test-negative design |
Type | Article |
ESSN | 1476-6256 |
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