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المؤلفAdegboye, Oyelola A.
المؤلفKotze, Danelle
تاريخ الإتاحة2017-07-31T11:35:32Z
تاريخ النشر2012-08-01
اسم المنشورAsian Pacific Journal of Tropical Disease
المعرّفhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2222-1808(12)60056-5
الاقتباسAdegboye, Oyelola A. Kotze, Danelle. Disease mapping of Leishmaniasis outbreak in Afghanistan: spatial hierarchical Bayesian analysis. Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Disease. 2012. Vol. 2(4). P.p. 253-259
الرقم المعياري الدولي للكتاب22221808
معرّف المصادر الموحدhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2222180812600565
معرّف المصادر الموحدhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/5607
الملخصAbstract ObjectiveTo analyze the spatial pattern of Leishmaniasis disease in Afghanistan, using provincial level geo-referenced data. The disease is contracted through bites from sand flies and is the third most common vector-borne disease. Leishmaniasis is a serious health concern in Afghanistan with about 250 000 estimated new cases of cutaneous infection nationwide and 67,000 cases in Kabul. This makes Kabul the city with the largest incidence of the disease worldwide. MethodsWe use a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model to estimate the influence of hypothesized risk factors on the relative risk of the disease. We use random components to take into account the lack of independence of the risk between adjacent areas. ResultsStatistical inference is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The final model specification includes altitude, two random components (intercept and slope) and utilizes a conditional autoregressive prior with a deviance information criterion of 247.761. Spatial scan statistics confirm disease clusters in the North-Eastern and South-Eastern regions of Afghanistan with a p-value of less than 0.0001. ConclusionsThe study confirms disease clusters in the North-Eastern and South-Eastern regions of Afghanistan. Our findings are robust with respect to the specification of the prior distribution and give important insights into the spatial dynamics of Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan.
اللغةen
الناشرElsevier
الموضوعSpatial hierarchical Bayesian analysis
Leishmaniasis
Spatial distribution
Relative risk
Disease mapping
العنوانDisease mapping of Leishmaniasis outbreak in Afghanistan: spatial hierarchical Bayesian analysis
النوعArticle
الصفحات253-259
رقم العدد4
رقم المجلد2
ESSN2222-1808
dc.accessType Abstract Only


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