Employment of CHAID and CRT decision tree algorithms to develop bid/no-bid decision-making models for contractors

Abstract

Purpose: Bid/no-bid decision is a significant and strategic decision, which must be finalized at an early stage of the bidding process. Such decision-making may have significant impact on the performance of the contractors. Using Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) and Classification and Regression (CRT) decision tree algorithms, this paper aims to develop bid/no-bid models for design-bid-build projects for contractors. Design/methodology/approach: The models in this study have been developed using CHAID and CRT algorithms. Thirty-four bid/no-bid key factors were collected via extensive research. The bid/no-bid factors were listed based on their importance index as a result of a questionnaire distributed among the construction professionals. These factors were divided into five main risk categories – owner, project, bidding situation, contract and contractor – which were taken as inputs for the models. Split-sample validation was applied for testing and measuring the accuracy of the CHAID and CRT models. Moreover, Spearman's rank correlation and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) tests were employed to identify the statistical features of the received 169 responses. Findings: The key bid/no-bid factors in construction industry were categorized in five related groups and ranked based on the relative importance index. It was found that the top 6 ranked bid/no-bid factors were (1) current workload, (2) need for work, (3) previous experience with employer; (4) timely payment by the employer; (5) availability of other projects for bidding (6) reputation of employer in the industry. Matrix comparison between all bid/no-bid groups was performed using Spearman's correlation to measure the relationship between each of the two paired groups. It was concluded that all the relationships were positive. Originality/value: Existing bidding models require many inputs and advanced understanding of mathematics and software to run the model. Contractors tend to use easy, fast and available support methods. Excluding a great number of the bid/no-bid factors may affect the final decision. This paper proposes a bid/no-bid decision tree models for contractors of different sizes. It is the first study in the literature, to the best of authors' knowledge, to study bid/no-bid decision with the proposed decision tree algorithm. The proposed models in this study overcome the shortfalls of most previous models such as avoiding the complexity and difficulties of applying the concept. The proposed model will provide the contractors with a bid/no-bid decision based on the input for the defined bid factor groups. The proposed models display the soft spots and hot spots between the independent and dependent variables, which leads to a better decision. The proposed models display the result effectively in visual terms, easy to understand and easy to apply. The proposed models are a form of multiple effect (or variable) analysis which allows the companies to explain, describe, predict or classify an outcome.