Covid-19 mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness Against Infection, Symptoms, And Severity: A Dynamic Gradient Over Time

Abstract

Background: Vaccines were developed and deployed to combat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. This study aimed to characterize patterns in the protection provided by the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 mRNA vaccines against a spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptoms, and severities. Methods: A nationwide, matched, test-negative, case-control study was carried out in Qatar from January 1 to December 18, 2021. It involved analyzing 238,896 PCR-positive tests and 6,533,739 PCR-negative tests to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) against asymptomatic, symptomatic, severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), critical COVID-19, and fatal COVID-19 infections. The study drew data from Qatar’s national databases on COVID-19 testing, vaccination, hospital admissions, and mortality. Results: Effectiveness of two-dose BNT162b2 vaccination was 75.6% (95% CI: 73.6-77.5) against asymptomatic infection and 76.5% (95% CI: 75.1-77.9) against symptomatic infection. Effectiveness against each of severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 infections surpassed 90%. Immediately after the second dose, all categories—namely, asymptomatic, symptomatic, severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19—exhibited similarly high effectiveness. However, from 181 to 270 days post-second dose, effectiveness against asymptomatic and symptomatic infections declined to below 40%, iv while effectiveness against each of severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 infections remained consistently high. Analogous patterns were observed in three-dose BNT162b2 vaccination and two- and three-dose mRNA-1273 vaccination. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the results. Conclusion: A gradient in VE exists and is linked to the symptoms and severity of infection, providing higher protection against more symptomatic and severe cases. This gradient intensifies over time as vaccine immunity wanes after the last vaccine dose. These patterns appear consistent irrespective of the vaccine type or whether the vaccination involves the primary series or a booster.