Changements climatiques et essor djihadiste au Sahel: une approche critique pour des solutions plus adaptées
Lake Chad riparian states and the international community have been trying to remedy the complex problems of the Sahel region (e.g. terrorism, extreme poverty, environmental degradation) with military interventions and by increasing the water resources the populations can access. The assumption behind this strategy is that climate change has had a drying and destructive effect on the region’s croplands and the Lake Chad ecosystem, making the millions of family agriculturalists who depend on these resources more vulnerable and leading to the rise of jihadist groups. This paper invalidates this assumption by showing that there has been no positive correlation between the Great Drought (1968-1993) caused by climate change and the emergence of jihadist groups in the region, which happened almost two decades later. A negative correlation has actually been found between multi-year drought and the birth and rise of jihadist groups over the past half century, largely due to the increase in general precipitations (and return to the 20th C. average) by the mid- to late 1990s and onwards, when groups such as Boko Haram (2009), MOJWA (2011) and Ansar Din (2012) emerged. Therefore, the authors call for a more careful approach to water resources development in the Sahel by the international donors, and attention to be paid to the particularly strong increase in temperatures and to the dynamics of destructive floods that have increasingly been affecting the region over the past two decades, but remained largely unnoticed by the press and donors.
- Research [101 items ]