Correlation of multiple time-scale and uncertainty modelling for renewable energy-load profiles in wind powered system

Abstract

Renewable energies and electrical loads usually show short-term variations in their energy profiles and they need to be precisely modeled in terms of time-scale and uncertainty. Correlation of time-scale, uncertainty, and simulation time must be studied to make an optimal tradeoff between these parameters. This paper aims to deal with this issue and it studies the correlation of time-scale and uncertainty in the renewable energy simulation. The different time scales including 15, 30, and 60 min are modeled and simulated. Uncertainty of electrical loads and wind energy are also incorporated. The introduced model is simulated and investigated on a typical building for energy management. Energy management tool is simulated under multiple time-scale patterns and wind-load uncertainty. The model is expressed as mixed integer stochastic programming and results confirm that considering shorter time-scale results in more precise outputs. It is demonstrated that 30, 15, and 5-min time-scale reduce the cost about 5, 3, and 0.8%, respectively. But they increase the simulation time about 100, 200, and 300%, respectively. As a result, 15-min time-scale is considered as the best case because it keeps both simulation time and model accuracy on the acceptable level. It is also shown that uncertainty in model increases the cost about 22% and reduces load by 10% and decreases the cost about 38%. - 2019 Elsevier Ltd