Correlations between socioeconomic drivers and indicators of urban expansion: Evidence from the heavily urbanised Shanghai metropolitan area, China

Abstract

Rapid urban expansion resulting in increased impervious surfaces causes a series of urban environmental problems, e.g., the urban heat island and urban forest fragmentation. Urban expansion is a serious threat to human quality of life and living environments. It has been studied from a variety of aspects, but its driving factors and time series expansion characteristics (i.e., expansion intensity, pattern and direction) need to be better explained in order to devise more effective management strategies. This study examined how social and economic factors are linked in driving urban expansion. Based on multi-temporal aerial images, a rapid urban expansion period, 2000-2010, in Shanghai was analysed. The urban area expanded from 1770.36 to 2855.44 km2 in the period, with a mean annual expansion rate of 108.51 km2. Urban expansion in 2000-2005 (40.42%) was much faster than in 2005-2010 (14.86%), and its direction was southeast, southwest and south. The main pattern was edge expansion in both sub-periods. Social factors, especially population density, significantly affected urban expansion. These findings can help understand the urban expansion process and its driving factors, which has important implications for urban planning and management in Shanghai and similar cities.