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AuthorAyoub, H.H.
AuthorAyoub, Houssein H.
AuthorChemaitelly, Hiam
AuthorMakhoul, Monia
AuthorAl Kanaani, Zaina
AuthorAl Kuwari, Einas
AuthorButt, Adeel A.
AuthorCoyle, Peter
AuthorJeremijenko, Andrew
AuthorKaleeckal, Anvar Hassan
AuthorLatif, Ali Nizar
AuthorShaik, Riyazuddin Mohammad
AuthorAbdul Rahim, Hanan F.
AuthorNasrallah, Gheyath K.
AuthorYassine, Hadi M.
AuthorAl Kuwari, Mohamed G.
AuthorAl Romaihi, Hamad Eid
AuthorAl-Thani, Mohamed H.
AuthorBertollini, Roberto
AuthorAl Khal, Abdullatif
AuthorAbu-Raddad, Laith J.
Available date2021-10-20T09:45:33Z
Publication Date2021-04-01
Publication NameBMJ Innovations
Identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjinnov-2021-000677
CitationAyoub HH, Chemaitelly H, Makhoul M, et alEpidemiological impact of prioritising SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by antibody status: mathematical modelling analysesBMJ Innovations 2021;7:327-336.
ISSN20558074
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/24586
AbstractBackground Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been developed, but their availability falls far short of global needs. This study aimed to investigate the impact of prioritising available doses on the basis of recipient antibody status, that is by exposure status, using Qatar as an example. Methods Vaccination impact (defined as the reduction in infection incidence and the number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection or one adverse disease outcome) was assessed under different scale-up scenarios using a deterministic meta-population mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression in the presence of vaccination. Results For a vaccine that protects against infection with an efficacy of 95%, half as many vaccinations were needed to avert one infection, disease outcome or death by prioritising antibody-negative individuals for vaccination. Prioritisation by antibody status reduced incidence at a faster rate and led to faster elimination of infection and return to normalcy. Further prioritisation by age group amplified the gains of prioritisation by antibody status. Gains from prioritisation by antibody status were largest in settings where the proportion of the population already infected at the commencement of vaccination was 30%-60%. For a vaccine that only protects against disease and not infection, vaccine impact was reduced by half, whether this impact was measured in terms of averted infections or disease outcomes, but the relative gains from using antibody status to prioritise vaccination recipients were similar. Conclusions Major health and economic gains can be achieved more quickly by prioritizing those who are antibody-negative while doses of the vaccine remain in short supply.
SponsorThis study received support from the Biomedical Research Program, and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core, all at Weill Cornell MedicineQatar, as well as support provided by the Ministry of Public Health and Hamad Medical Corporation. The developed mathematical models were made possible by NPRP grant number 9-040-3-008 (principal investigator: LJA-R) and NPRP grant number 12S-0216-190094 (principal investigator: LJA-R) from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation; https://www.qnrf.org).
Languageen
PublisherBMJ Publishing Group
Subjectcommunicable diseases
COVID-19
public health
vaccination
TitleEpidemiological impact of prioritising SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by antibody status: Mathematical modelling analyses
TypeArticle
Pagination327-336
Issue Number2
Volume Number7
ESSN2055-642X
dc.accessType Open Access


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