Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection.
المؤلف | Chemaitelly, Hiam |
المؤلف | Nagelkerke, Nico |
المؤلف | Ayoub, Houssein H |
المؤلف | Coyle, Peter |
المؤلف | Tang, Patrick |
المؤلف | Yassine, Hadi M |
المؤلف | Al-Khatib, Hebah A |
المؤلف | Smatti, Maria K |
المؤلف | Hasan, Mohammad R |
المؤلف | Al-Kanaani, Zaina |
المؤلف | Al-Kuwari, Einas |
المؤلف | Jeremijenko, Andrew |
المؤلف | Kaleeckal, Anvar Hassan |
المؤلف | Latif, Ali Nizar |
المؤلف | Shaik, Riyazuddin Mohammad |
المؤلف | Abdul-Rahim, Hanan F |
المؤلف | Nasrallah, Gheyath K |
المؤلف | Al-Kuwari, Mohamed Ghaith |
المؤلف | Butt, Adeel A |
المؤلف | Al-Romaihi, Hamad Eid |
المؤلف | Al-Thani, Mohamed H |
المؤلف | Al-Khal, Abdullatif |
المؤلف | Bertollini, Roberto |
المؤلف | Abu-Raddad, Laith J |
تاريخ الإتاحة | 2022-11-09T04:34:51Z |
تاريخ النشر | 2022-09-30 |
اسم المنشور | Journal of Travel Medicine (JTM) |
المعرّف | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taac109 |
الاقتباس | Hiam Chemaitelly, PhD, Nico Nagelkerke, PhD, Houssein H Ayoub, PhD, Peter Coyle, MD, Patrick Tang, MD PhD, Hadi M Yassine, PhD, Hebah A Al-Khatib, PhD, Maria K Smatti, MSc, Mohammad R Hasan, PhD, Zaina Al-Kanaani, PhD, Einas Al-Kuwari, MD, Andrew Jeremijenko, MD, Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal, MSc, Ali Nizar Latif, MD, Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik, MSc, Hanan F Abdul-Rahim, PhD, Gheyath K Nasrallah, PhD, Mohamed Ghaith Al-Kuwari, MD, Adeel A Butt, MBBS MS, Hamad Eid Al-Romaihi, MD, Mohamed H Al-Thani, MD, Abdullatif Al-Khal, MD, Roberto Bertollini, MD MPH, Laith J Abu-Raddad, PhD, Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection, Journal of Travel Medicine, 2022;, taac109, https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taac109 |
الرقم المعياري الدولي للكتاب | 1195-1982 |
الملخص | The future of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hinges on virus evolution and duration of immune protection of natural infection against reinfection. We investigated duration of protection afforded by natural infection, the effect of viral immune evasion on duration of protection, and protection against severe reinfection, in Qatar, between February 28, 2020 and June 5, 2022. Three national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted to compare incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity among unvaccinated persons with a documented SARS-CoV-2 primary infection, to incidence among those infection-naïve and unvaccinated. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional-hazard regression models. Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against pre-Omicron reinfection was 85.5% (95% CI: 84.8-86.2%). Effectiveness peaked at 90.5% (95% CI: 88.4-92.3%) in the 7th month after the primary infection, but waned to ~ 70% by the 16th month. Extrapolating this waning trend using a Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of 50% in the 22nd month and < 10% by the 32nd month. Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against Omicron reinfection was 38.1% (95% CI: 36.3-39.8%) and declined with time since primary infection. A Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of < 10% by the 15th month. Effectiveness of primary infection against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 reinfection was 97.3% (95% CI: 94.9-98.6%), irrespective of the variant of primary infection or reinfection, and with no evidence for waning. Similar results were found in sub-group analyses for those ≥50 years of age. Protection of natural infection against reinfection wanes and may diminish within a few years. Viral immune evasion accelerates this waning. Protection against severe reinfection remains very strong, with no evidence for waning, irrespective of variant, for over 14 months after primary infection. |
اللغة | en |
الناشر | Oxford University Press |
الموضوع | COVID-19 Omicron cohort study epidemiology immunity reinfection severe disease |
النوع | Article |
ESSN | 1708-8305 |
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