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المؤلفElmasry, Mohamed
المؤلفHawari, Alaa
المؤلفZayed, Tarek
تاريخ الإتاحة2023-05-23T09:39:16Z
تاريخ النشر2017
اسم المنشورCanadian Journal of Civil Engineering
المصدرScopus
معرّف المصادر الموحدhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2016-0592
معرّف المصادر الموحدhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/43381
الملخصA defect based deterioration model to determine the condition ratings in a probabilistic manner for sewer pipelines is presented in this paper. Bayesian belief network (BBN) is used to develop a static model using probabilities of occurrences, and conditional probabilities from observations of existing sewage network. Time dimension is introduced to the developed BBN model by using logistic regression as temporal links required to construct a dynamic Bayesian belief network (DBN). The accuracy of the model’s prediction is examined using actual data where the mean absolute error and root mean square error for the BBN model resulted in values of 0.67, 1.06, 0.56 and 1.05, 1.60, 0.95 for structural, operational, and overall conditions, respectively. As for the DBN model, values achieved for the year at which a pipeline would reach a certain condition state were close to the actual values from the validation dataset.
راعي المشروعThis publication was made possible by NPRP grant # (NPRP6-357-2-150) from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of The Qatar Foundation). The statements made herein are solely the responsibility of the authors. Also the authors would like to thank the public works authority of Qatar (ASHGAL) for their support in the data collection.
اللغةen
الناشرCanadian Science Publishing
الموضوعBayesian belief network
Deterioration model
Dynamic Bayesian network
Monte Carlo simulation
Multinomial logistic regression
Sewer pipelines defects
العنوانDefect based deterioration model for sewer pipelines using bayesian belief networks
النوعArticle
الصفحات675-690
رقم العدد9
رقم المجلد44
dc.accessType Abstract Only


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