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AuthorLee, Tamsin E.
AuthorBlack, Simon A.
AuthorFellous, Amina
AuthorYamaguchi, Nobuyuki
AuthorAngelici, Francesco M.
AuthorAl Hikmani, Hadi
AuthorMichael Reed, J.
AuthorElphick, Chris S.
AuthorRoberts, David L.
Available date2023-10-05T06:08:27Z
Publication Date2015-09-01
Publication NamePeerJ
Identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1224
CitationLee, T. E., Black, S. A., Fellous, A., Yamaguchi, N., Angelici, F. M., Al Hikmani, H., ... & Roberts, D. L. (2015). Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion. PeerJ, 3, e1224.
ISSN2167-8359
URIhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84944887393&origin=inward
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/48280
AbstractAs species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake.We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible.We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 32 sightings of the Barbary lion. We consider the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as asking them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually, meaning that this new questioning method provides very different estimated probabilities that a sighting is valid, which greatly affects the outcome from an extinction model.We consider linear opinion pooling and logarithm opinion pooling to combine the three scores, and also to combine opinions on each sighting. We find the two methods produce similar outcomes, allowing the user to focus on chosen features of each method, such as satisfying the marginalisation property or being externally Bayesian.
Languageen
PublisherPeerJ
SubjectCritically endangered
Data quality
Extinct
IUCN red list
Panthera leo
Possibly extinct
Sighting record
Sighting uncertainty
TitleAssessing uncertainty in sighting records: An example of the Barbary lion
TypeArticle
Issue Number9
Volume Number2015
dc.accessType Open Access


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