Protecting alpine biodiversity in the Middle East from climate change: Implications for high-elevation birds

Abstract

Aims: The Middle East, located in the arid belt of the Earth, is home to a diverse range of biodiversity, with its mountain ecosystems being the most important centres of species diversity and endemism. In this study, the impact of climate change on alpine bird species in the Middle East was assessed across five mountain systems: Alborz–Kopet-Dagh, Caucasus–Pontic, Levant–Taurus, Sarawat–Hijaz and Zagros–Central Iran. Location: Middle East. Methods: Using species distribution models (SDMs), 38 native alpine bird species were analysed under different climate change scenarios. We also identified future multispecies in situ and ex situ climate refugia and assessed the efficiency of the current protected areas (PAs) system in protecting them. Results: The results indicated that, on average, habitat suitability for these species is projected to decline by 36.83% (2050, SSP2-4.5) to 60.10% (2070, SSP5-8.5) with an upward range shift. Based on stacking range change of the species, Levant–Taurus, Zagros–Central Iran and Alborz–Kopet–Dagh mountain ranges will experience the highest amount of habitat loss, respectively, with Caucasus–Pontic being least affected. The gap analysis showed that the existing PAs system covers only 13% and 10% of the in situ and ex situ climatic refugia, respectively. Conclusions: Our findings underscore the significance of mountainous regions in the Middle East for the persistence of alpine bird species and the urgent need to prioritize climate refugia in transboundary and participatory conservation plans. It is crucial to prevent habitat degradation and alteration resulting from human activities in these areas to ensure the persistence of alpine species and their habitats.