Development of an Integrated Hybrid Risk Assessment System for Construction Disputes during the Preconstruction Phase Using the Delphi Method

Abstract

This paper proposes a hybrid conceptual and performance assessment integrated dispute risk system that enables construction professionals to evaluate, track, and manage construction disputes. It establishes a correlation between dispute-contributing factors and their respective preconstruction stages, facilitating early dispute detection and mitigation before the construction phase. This method can be applied to gauge the effectiveness of the preconstruction phase in relation to its influence on the emergence of disputes. Through an extensive literature review, expert interviews, and the Delphi technique, 48 key risk factors were identified and categorized into four groups. Eighteen experts were selected using purposive sampling, and their survey responses were checked for normality and reliability using the Shapiro-Wilk test and Cronbach's alpha. The Delphi method was employed to reach a consensus among the panelists after two rounds of evaluation, using the nonparametric statistical parameters, such as Kendall's coefficient of concordance and chi-squared. Subsequently, the interrater agreement (IRA) was measured, and the dispute factors were ranked. Based on the ranking results, a novel integrated hybrid system was formulated that synergistically combines a hybrid conceptual and performance assessment framework with a fuzzy logic-structural equation model (SEM). The proposed hybrid system includes two key components: a unique conceptual and performance assessment framework and a hybrid model that combines fuzzy logic and SEM. This combined approach captures uncertainty and ambiguity in assessing dispute risks related to probability and severity, providing a more precise evaluation of disputes in construction projects. Additionally, the introduction of new dispute categories specifically targeting the preconstruction phase proactively deals with potential disputes before the construction begins. This advanced integrated hybrid system can be an effective preconstruction assessment tool for evaluating and managing various dispute factors, enabling project managers to proactively assess, manage, and mitigate construction disputes between project parties.