The Sudanese Revolution and the Horizons of Democratization

Abstract

​This study poses several questions: Did the fall of the Salvation regime in Sudan result from an initiative from within the regime, an opposition coalition, or both? How influential was the external factor in the overthrow of the regime and the period of transition to democracy? Will the post-Salvation regime order stay the course of democratisation, or will it revert to an authoritarian system? The study concludes that the likely agreed-upon aim of world powers and their authoritarian partners in the region is to steer Sudan toward a hybrid system that keeps members of the old regime in control of the key positions of power while preserving a minimum degree of democracy. In this framework, the ruling civilian-military alliance will receive support from the US, the EU, and their regional allies, which will enable it to dismantle the institutions of the former regime, assimilate a number of militant movements in the political process, and gradually integrate into the international security and economic orders. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the transitional government will encounter formidable challenges of a nature that might not only cause the transitional process to fall apart but also precipitate the collapse of the Sudanese state.