Profitability of Expectation Based on Trading Rules: A Study on Kuwait Stock Market

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence on the profitability of the alternative expectation formation mechanisms in the case of Kuwait Stock Exchange as an example of an emerging market. The results indicate that both extrapolative and adaptive expectations are profitable while regressive expectations are not. In addition, the results imply that extrapolative expectations are more profitable than adaptive. An important conclusion of this paper is that the market suffers form inefficiency since future trend of the market can be predicted from its past performance, a phenomenon shared by emerging markets.