Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change
الملخص
Climate change is increasingly affecting plant species distributions, in ways that need to be predicted. Here, in a novel prediction approach, we developed the relevant climate niche (RCN) of plants, based on thorough selection of climate variables and implementation of a non-parametric Bayesian network for climate simulations. The RCN was conditionalized to project the fate of Silene acaulis in North America under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) short-term (2011–2040) climate scenarios. We identified a three-variable climate hypervolume for S. acaulis. Within 20 years >50% of current locations of the species will be outside the defined climate hypervolume. It could compensate for climate change in 2011–2040 through a poleward shift of 0.97 °C or an upshift of 138 m in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 1.29 °C or 184 m in the RCP8.5 scenario. These results demonstrate the benefits of redefining the climate niche of plant species in the form of a user-defined, data-validated, hierarchical network comprising only variables that are consistent with species distribution. Advantages include realism and interpretability in niche modeling, and new opportunities for predicting future species distributions under climate change.
المجموعات
- مجموعة علوم الأرض [213 items ]
وثائق ذات صلة
عرض الوثائق المتصلة بواسطة: العنوان، المؤلف، المنشئ والموضوع.
-
India: Bio-climatism in vernacular architecture
Indraganti, M.; Indraganti, Madhavi ( Springer Singapore , 2018 , Book chapter)© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018. Human beings have a natural instinct for bio-climatic home building. Vernacular architecture potentially leverages on this ability while responding to the sociocultural and economic ... -
Urban Climate Change Vulnerability, Responses, and Policies in Qatar: An Assessment
Al-Saidi, Mohammad; Mohammad, Sara Abdelhakim; Awartani, Amina Nihad ( Springer Nature , 2018 , Book chapter)Urban climate change policies are critical for reducing carbon emissions and increasing societal resilience to future risks. This is especially true for the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which are arid ... -
Dangerous anthropogenic climate change. Are we closer than we think? A 2016 update
Obbard, Jeff ( Hamad bin Khalifa University Press (HBKU Press) , 2014 , Conference Paper)In this presentation, I will outline the fundamentals of climate change science with respect to 'real-world' climate observations, and evidence from the Earth's paleoclimate (climate history) record. In particular, I will ...