The next decade of cardiovascular disease burden in Qatar, a gulf cooperation council country: Projections from 2024 to 2033

Abstract

BackgroundCardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a great public health challenge in Qatar, with significant impacts on long-term population health and societal costs. ObjectiveWe aimed to forecast the health and economic burden of the CVD in Qatar from 2024 to 2033, from both healthcare and societal perspective. MethodsA validated two-stage dynamic model was structured, spanning a 10-year period and targeting individuals aged 40-79. The CVD incidents (i.e., myocardial infarction [MI], stroke) were estimated using the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent events were obtained from the global REACH registry. The model outcomes included fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total direct costs, and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost inputs were derived from published sources. Outcomes were discounted at a rate of 3 % per annum. Calibration and validation were performed to ensure model accuracy. A multivariate sensitivity analysis was also conducted. ResultsBy 2033, there will be 271,260 non-fatal MI events (95 % confidence interval [CI] 271,249-271,277), 258,892 non-fatal strokes (95 %CI 258,858-259,094), and 20,413 CVD deaths (95 %CI 20,405-20,429). The cumulative years of life lived and QALYs were 13,806,845 (95 % CI 13,802,149-13,811,541) and 10,655,665 (95 %CI 10,652,720-10,658,611), respectively. The direct costs were QAR71.14 (95 %CI QAR70.62-71.66) billion, and the productivity loss costs were estimated to surpass QAR108.12 (95 %CI QAR106.88-109.36) billion. The exchange rates used were based on 2024 values (1QAR=0.27US$). ConclusionsThis study offers valuable insights into the projected burden of CVD in Qatar, highlighting the need for effective preventive strategies to reduce risk.