Prognosis and Health Monitoring of Nonlinear Systems Using a Hybrid Scheme Through Integration of PFs and Neural Networks

Abstract

In this paper, a novel hybrid architecture is proposed for developing a prognosis and health monitoring methodology for nonlinear systems through integration of model-based and computationally intelligent-based techniques. In our proposed framework, the well-known particle filters (PFs) method is utilized to estimate the states as well as the health parameters of the system. Simultaneously, the system observations are predicted through an observation forecasting scheme that is developed based on neural networks (NNs) paradigms. The objective is to construct observation profiles that are to be used in future time horizons. Our proposed online training that is utilized for observation forecasting enables the NNs models to track nonergodic changes in the profiles that are present due to presence of hidden damage affecting the system health parameters. The forecasted observations are then utilized in the PFs to predict the evolution of the system states as well as the health parameters (which are considered to be time-varying due to effects of degradation and damage) into future time horizons. Our proposed hybrid architecture enables one to select health signatures for determining the remaining useful life of the system or its components not only based on the system observations but also by taking into account the system health parameters that are not physically measurable. Our proposed hybrid health monitoring methodology is constructed and developed by invoking a special framework where implementation of the observation forecasting scheme is not dependent on the structure of the utilized NNs model. In other words, changing the network structure will not significantly affect the prediction accuracy associated with the entire health prediction scheme. To verify and validate the above results and as a case study, our proposed hybrid approach is applied to predict the health condition of a gas turbine engine when it is affected by and subjected to fouling and erosion degradation and fault damages.