External Validation and Recalibration of the CURB-65 and PSI for Predicting 30-Day Mortality and Critical Care Intervention in Multiethnic Patients with COVID-19
المؤلف | Elmoheen, Amr |
المؤلف | Abdelhafez, Ibrahim |
المؤلف | Salem, Waleed |
المؤلف | Bahgat, Mohamed |
المؤلف | Elkandow, Ali |
المؤلف | Tarig, Amina |
المؤلف | Arshad, Nauman |
المؤلف | Mohamed, Khoulod |
المؤلف | Al-Hitmi, Maryam |
المؤلف | Saad, Mona |
المؤلف | Emam, Fatima |
المؤلف | Taha, Samah |
المؤلف | Bashir, Khalid |
المؤلف | Azad, Aftab |
تاريخ الإتاحة | 2021-10-26T10:20:03Z |
تاريخ النشر | 2021-08 |
اسم المنشور | International journal of infectious diseases |
المعرّف | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.08.027 |
الاقتباس | Elmoheen, A., Abdelhafez, I., Salem, W., Bahgat, M., Elkandow, A., & Tarig, A. et al. (2021). External Validation and Recalibration of the CURB-65 and PSI for Predicting 30-Day Mortality and Critical Care Intervention in Multiethnic Patients with COVID-19. Retrieved 26 October 2021 |
الملخص | Objectives: To validate and recalibrate the CURB-65 and pneumonia severity index (PSI) in predicting 30-day mortality and critical care intervention (CCI) in a multiethnic population with COVID-19, along with evaluating both models in predicting CCI. Methods: Retrospective data was collected for 1181 patients admitted to the largest hospital in Qatar with COVID-19 pneumonia. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and other metrics were bootstrapped to examine the performance of the models. Variables constituting the CURB-65 and PSI scores underwent further analysis using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) along with logistic regression to develop a model predicting CCI. Complex machine learning models were built for comparative analysis. Results: The PSI performed better than CURB-65 in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83, 0.78 respectively), while CURB-65 outperformed PSI in predicting CCI (AUC 0.78, 0.70 respectively). The modified PSI/CURB-65 model (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, hematocrit, age, sodium, and glucose) predicting CCI had excellent accuracy (AUC 0.823) and good calibration. Conclusions: Our study recalibrated, externally validated the PSI and CURB-65 for predicting 30-day mortality and CCI, and developed a model for predicting CCI. Our tool can potentially guide clinicians in Qatar to stratify patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. |
اللغة | en |
الناشر | Elsevier |
الموضوع | COVID-19 CURB-65 PSI mortality critical care intervention |
النوع | Article |
رقم المجلد | 111 |
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