TOWARD SUSTAINABLE AVIATION: A MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR SAF PATHWAYS EVALUATION

Abstract

The aviation industry is one of the fastest-growing contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, primarily due to its dependence on conventional jet fuels. The combustion of these fuels is the primary contributor to aviation-related emissions, making the transition to low-carbon alternatives essential for minimizing environmental consequences. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are presented as a promising alternative, offering the potential to cut emissions while maintaining operational efficiency. However, selecting the most suitable SAF pathway is complex due to trade-offs across environmental, economic, and technical factors. A customized Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) framework is developed to objectively evaluate nine certified SAF pathways. The Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is utilized using interval data to address uncertainty, with three sets of objective weights (representing optimistic, pessimistic, and average scenarios) generated through the Coefficient of Variation (COV) method to ensure robust results. A group decision-making technique is then used to aggregate the scenario outcomes and determine the final ranking. This study is original in its objective approach, eliminating the subjective biases often found in SAF assessments. Using interval data and multiple weighting scenarios makes the evaluation more accurate and adaptable under uncertainty. It offers stakeholders a clear tool to guide the selection of the most sustainable fuel for aviation.