Estimates of the prevalence of male circumcision in sub-Saharan Africa from 2010-2023 -A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Background Male circumcision (MC) is a key part of the package of interventions to prevent HIV, the biggest health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. Objective To estimate the male circumcision prevalence and to evaluate the progress towards meeting WHO targets in sub-Saharan Africa during the period 2010-2023. Methods We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published during the period 2010-2023. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane CENTRAL, Google Scholar, WHO and the Demographic and Health Survey for reports on MC prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. MC prevalence was synthesized using inverse-variance heterogeneity models, heterogeneity using I2 statistics and publication bias using funnel plots. Results A total of 53 studies were included. The overall prevalence during the study period was 45.9% (95% CI 32.3-59.8), with a higher MC prevalence in Eastern (69.9%, 95%CI 49.9-86.8) compared to Southern African (33.3%, 95%CI 21.7-46.2). The overall prevalence was higher in urban (45.3%, 95%CI 27.7-63.4) compared to rural settings (42.6%, 95% 26.5-59.5). Male circumcision prevalence increased from 40.2% (95% CI 25.0-56.3) during 2010-2015 to 56.2% (95% CI 31.5-79.5) during 2016-2023. Three countries exceeded 80% MC coverage, namely, Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania. Conclusion Overall, the current MC prevalence is below 50%, with higher prevalence in Eastern African countries and substantially lower prevalence in Southern Africa. Most of the priority countries need to do more to scale up medical male circumcision programs.