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    Characterizing the effective reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Qatar’s experience

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    Published article.pdf (3.396Mb)
    Date
    2022-02-05
    Author
    Bsat, Raghid
    Chemaitelly, Hiam
    Coyle, Peter
    Tang, Patrick
    Hasan, Mohammad R
    Al Kanaani, Zaina
    Al Kuwari, Einas
    Butt, Adeel A
    Jeremijenko, Andrew
    Kaleeckal, Anvar Hassan
    Latif, Ali Nizar
    Shaik, Riyazuddin Mohammad
    Nasrallah, Gheyath K
    Benslimane, Fatiha M
    Al Khatib, Hebah A
    Yassine, Hadi M
    Al Kuwari, Mohamed G
    Al Romaihi, Hamad Eid
    Al-Thani, Mohamed H
    Al Kha, Abdullatif
    Bertollini, Roberto
    Abu-Raddad, Laith J
    Ayoub, Houssein H
    ...show more authors ...show less authors
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    Abstract
    Background: The effective reproduction number, Rt, is a tool to track and understand epidemic dynamics. This investigation of Rt estimations was conducted to guide the national COVID-19 response in Qatar, from the onset of the epidemic until August 18, 2021. Methods: Real-time “empirical” RtEmpirical was estimated using five methods, including the Robert Koch Institute, Cislaghi, Systrom-Bettencourt and Ribeiro, Wallinga and Teunis, and Cori et al. methods. Rt was also estimated using a transmission dynamics model (RtModel-based). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Agreements between different Rt estimates were assessed by calculating correlation coefficients. Results: RtEmpirical captured the evolution of the epidemic through three waves, public health response landmarks, effects of major social events, transient fluctuations coinciding with significant clusters of infection, and introduction and expansion of the B.1.1.7 variant. The various estimation methods produced consistent and overall comparable RtEmpirical estimates with generally large correlation coefficients. The Wallinga and Teunis method was the fastest at detecting changes in epidemic dynamics. RtEmpirical estimates were consistent whether using time series of symptomatic PCR-confirmed cases, all PCR-confirmed cases, acute-care hospital admissions, or ICU-care hospital admissions, to proxy trends in true infection incidence. RtModel-based correlated strongly with RtEmpirical and provided an average RtEmpirical. Conclusions: Rt estimations were robust and generated consistent results regardless of the data source or the method of estimation. Findings affirmed an influential role for Rt estimations in guiding national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, even in resource-limited settings.
    DOI/handle
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.07.21264599
    http://hdl.handle.net/10576/26589
    Collections
    • Biomedical Research Center Research [‎785‎ items ]
    • Biomedical Sciences [‎796‎ items ]
    • COVID-19 Research [‎848‎ items ]
    • Mathematics, Statistics & Physics [‎786‎ items ]
    • Public Health [‎480‎ items ]

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