Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study.

Abstract

This study aims to perform an external validation of a recently developed prognostic model for early prediction of the risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Patients were recruited at their initial diagnosis at two facilities within Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar. 356 adults were included for analysis. Predictors for progression of COVID-19 were all measured at disease onset and first contact with the health system. The C statistic was 83% (95% CI: 78%-87%) and the calibration plot showed that the model was well-calibrated. The published prognostic model for the progression of COVID-19 infection showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration and the model is easy to apply in clinical practice.d.