SARS-CoV-2 infection and effects of age, sex, comorbidity, and vaccination among older individuals: A national cohort study

Abstract

Background: We investigated the contribution of age, coexisting medical conditions, sex, and vaccination to incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 in older adults since pandemic onset. Methods: A national retrospective cohort study was conducted in the population of Qatar aged ≥50 years between February 5, 2020 and June 15, 2023. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) for infection and for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes were estimated through Cox regression models. Results: Cumulative incidence was 25.01% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24.86–25.15%) for infection and 1.59% (95% CI: 1.55–1.64%) for severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 after a follow-up duration of 40.9 months. Risk of infection varied minimally by age and sex but increased significantly with coexisting conditions. Risk of infection was reduced with primary-series vaccination (AHR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.90–0.93) and further with first booster vaccination (AHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74–0.77). Risk of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 increased exponentially with age and linearly with coexisting conditions. AHRs for severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.7–0.97) for one dose, 0.15 (95% CI: 0.13–0.17) for primary-series vaccination, and 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08–0.14) for first booster vaccination. Sensitivity analysis restricted to only Qataris yielded similar results. Conclusion: Incidence of severe COVID-19 in older adults followed a dynamic pattern shaped by infection incidence, variant severity, and population immunity. Age, sex, and coexisting conditions were strong determinants of infection severity. Vaccine protection against severe outcomes showed a dose–response relationship, highlighting the importance of booster vaccination for older adults.